According to the latest projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the July 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook Update, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2025, with a projected consistency in this level in 2026. While this figure is slightly lower than in previous years, this growth rate indicates stability amid global uncertainty. The latest projection indicates a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the April 2025 report. This indicates that the IMF views Indonesia's economic outlook as improving, despite the slight increase. Meanwhile, in 2023 and 2024, Indonesia's economic growth reached 5.0%. The IMF's primary analysis does not address Indonesia specifically. However, it is included in the ASEAN-5 group alongside Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is anticipated that these developing economies will grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. It is noteworthy that the report indicates that developing countries, including Indonesia, are the primary drivers of global growth in the face of a slowdown in advanced economies.
Despite stable growth projections, Indonesia's growth remains below the pre-pandemic average of around 5%. These figures reflect the impact of global uncertainties, including trade tensions, commodity price volatility, and changes in the direction of developed countries' monetary policies. The IMF also highlights potential global risks that could hinder growth in developing countries, such as the resurgence of trade wars and increasing economic fragmentation, which could be particularly detrimental to countries that rely on exports. In order to maintain growth momentum, the IMF encourages developing countries to strengthen their fiscal and monetary policy frameworks and promote structural reforms. This includes improving spending efficiency, strengthening government revenues, and increasing productivity through innovation and investment in human capital.
