Indonesia’s trade balance is projected to post a strong surplus in May 2025, supported by a rebound in exports and easing global uncertainty. Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede estimates a trade surplus of USD 2.29 billion—far higher than the USD 158.8 million recorded in April. Two main factors support this projection: post-Eid trade normalization boosting industrial activity, and improved global trade sentiment following a US-China agreement that eased trade tensions. Exports are expected to grow 11.76% month-on-month (mtm), while demand from China for Indonesian goods rose by 1.80% mtm and 10.22% year-on-year (yoy). At the same time, import growth normalized to 1.49% mtm, significantly lower than the 8.80% surge in April.
However, Josua cautions that external risks remain, particularly the still-high 30% US tariffs on Chinese goods, which continue to pressure global trade and key Indonesian export prices. Weaker domestic demand and easing global oil prices have also helped reduce imports, strengthening Indonesia’s net exports. The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to widen slightly to 0.87% of GDP in 2025 from 0.63% in 2024, but remains manageable. The government’s export earnings (DHE) policy and foreign exchange reserves, projected at USD 153–157 billion, are seen as stabilizing forces for the rupiah (IDR 16,100–16,400 per USD). Meanwhile, BCA Chief Economist David Sumual forecasts an even higher surplus of USD 4.016 billion, with exports growing 13.58% mtm and imports declining 5.06% mtm, helped by an additional working day in May.
