In April 2025, Indonesia's trade balance is projected to return to surplus, although the value will decrease. This indicates that the trend of Indonesia's trade balance surplus will endure for 60 consecutive months. Bloomberg's consensus of 16 economists projects the median value of the trade balance surplus in April 2025 to be USD 2.73 billion, representing a decrease compared to the USD 4.33 billion recorded in the previous month's trade balance. Standard Chartered Bank economist Aldian Taloputra provided the highest estimate, with a nominal value of US$4.69 billion. In contrast, Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Miguel Chanco provided the lowest estimate of USD 650 million.
Meanwhile, the Chief Economist of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, David Sumual, projects that the trade balance in April 2025 will experience a surplus of USD 2.45 billion. According to the latest projections, exports are expected to increase by 3.57% on an annual basis but decrease by 12.61% on a monthly basis. In turn, imports are forecast to rise by 5.73% on an annual basis, but to fall by 5.58% on a monthly basis. The terms of trade have experienced a slowdown due to a decline in the prices of numerous export commodities, particularly gas, metals such as nickel, copper, tin, and plantations such as CPO, rubber, and coffee. In contrast, the prices of imported commodities, including oil and wheat, have fallen more significantly. The decline in exports and imports on a monthly basis can be attributed to seasonal factors after Eid al-Fitr, which has fewer working days and more imports in Ramadan or the previous month. In contrast, the value of exports and imports rose on an annual basis due to the base effect, which was particularly low in April of last year. Meanwhile, the BPS-Indonesia Statistics will release data on Indonesia's trade balance for April 2025 on 15 May 2025.
