The U.S. reciprocal tariff policy may impact Indonesia’s coffee industry, as the United States has long been the largest export destination for Indonesian coffee. In 2023, the U.S. imported 36,625 tons or 13.25% of Indonesia’s total coffee exports, down from 67,309 tons in 2016. Despite the drop, exporters like Manat Samosir from North Sumatra say global demand remains high, and they struggle to meet annual sales contracts. Arabica coffee from Sumatra, for instance, currently sells for Rp 120,000 per kilogram of green beans. However, Indonesia still lags in production capacity, making it less competitive globally. The Trump-era tariffs, though not yet in effect, are expected to have some level of impact, prompting concerns about long-term market stability.
Manat emphasizes the need for urgent improvements in coffee sector governance, especially upstream in agriculture, where aging trees and lack of rejuvenation have led to declining yields. While downstream sectors flourish with cafés, barista schools, and roasting houses, upstream farming is often neglected. In Humbang Hasundutan, a local cooperative of 784 farmers is working to rejuvenate Arabica coffee plants and promote sustainable farming practices. Current yields average only 600 kg per hectare, far below the potential 2.5 tons. Manat and fellow farmer Abdul Gani Silaban believe that increasing production is key to maintaining global competitiveness, regardless of tariffs. They remain confident that Sumatra’s distinctive Arabica coffee will continue to dominate the market if production challenges are addressed.
