Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati predicts that Indonesia's economy will grow by 5% in 2024, according to the outlook in the interim report (lapsem). This means that if Indonesia's economic growth reaches only 5% by the end of the year, the 2025 target of 5.2% in the state budget (APBN) will not be achieved. Sri Mulyani mentioned that the growth rate for each quarter in 2024 has been gradually decreasing, with the first quarter at 5.11%, the second at 5.05%, and the third quarter at 4.95%. The final quarter's growth figures are yet to be released, but the overall annual growth is expected to reach 5%.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) has projected that Indonesia's economic growth will stagnate at around 5.0% in 2025. Indef's Executive Director, Esther Sri Astuti, cited several factors contributing to this stagnation. These include the uncertain global situation following Donald Trump's election as U.S. president, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and weakened demand from China. Additionally, there has been no rapid stimulus or incentives to boost purchasing power and industrial conditions. Indef also views 2025 as a year for adjustments and coordination among ministries and policymakers. In other projections, Indef expects inflation to be around 2.8% year-on-year, the exchange rate of the rupiah to reach IDR 16,100 per USD, an unemployment rate of 4.75%, and a poverty rate of 8.8%.

Source:
https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/prediksi-sri-mulyani-ekonomi-indonesia-2024-tumbuh-5