The Ministry of Trade, through the Trade Policy Agency (BKPerdag), targets an export value of USD 294.45 billion with a growth of 7.1% in 2025. This export value is expected to increase further, reaching USD 405.69 billion by 2029, with a growth rate of 9.64%. Fajarini Puntodewi, Head of BKPerdag, explained that these export targets are crucial for supporting President Prabowo Subianto’s 8% economic growth target. Export growth is seen as a key driver for economic expansion, significantly contributing to the country’s overall growth. Puntodewi emphasized that Indonesia’s exports must grow by 7-10% to meet the nation's economic goals. She also highlighted that the global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% to 3.2% in 2025, with Indonesia’s economy expected to grow at 5.1%, an increase compared to 2024's projection of 5%.
To achieve these targets, the Ministry of Trade has outlined three main focus areas: securing the domestic market to ensure local products can compete, expanding export markets to increase Indonesia’s global market share, and enhancing the role of MSMEs through the "Berani Inovasi, Siap Adaptasi (BISA) Ekspor" program to boost their contribution to national exports. The 17th Gambir Trade Talk (GTT) event, which discussed Indonesia's foreign trade outlook for 2025, featured expert speakers who identified both opportunities and challenges. M. Faisal from CORE Indonesia predicted that Indonesia’s trade surplus would continue into 2025, albeit at a reduced rate, while highlighting challenges such as weakening demand and increased trade barriers. He also pointed to the potential impact of U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese products, which could divert trade flows to markets like Indonesia. APINDO’s Budihardjo Iduansjah discussed the shifting global value chains and the risks of deindustrialization and high economic costs, while UGM’s Arum Kusumaningtyas emphasized the need for improved governance and trade management to support long-term economic goals.
