The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) has proposed two scenarios to achieve the 8% economic growth target set by President-elect Prabowo Subianto. Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, Deputy for Economic Affairs at the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, stated that a minimum average economic growth of 6% is necessary for Indonesia to escape the middle-income trap. Prabowo's vision of achieving 8% growth could expedite this goal. The first scenario involves gradual and consistent economic growth each year, reaching 8% by the end of Prabowo's term. The breakdown is: 5.7% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026, 7.0% in 2027, 7.5% in 2028, and 8% in 2029.
The second scenario accommodates Prabowo's desire for acceleration in the third and fourth years of his term, targeting 8.3% growth in 2027 and 8% in 2028, with a growth rate of 7.8% in 2029, resulting in an average growth rate of approximately 7.7% over five years. Senior economist from CORE Indonesia, Hendri Saparini, emphasized the need for significant economic growth to break free from the middle-income trap, noting that the average growth rate has been declining. The government, through the 2025 State Budget Law (UU APBN), targets a 5.2% economic growth rate for the upcoming year.
