Indonesia’s import performance is expected to rise towards the end of 2024 after a previous decline in September 2024. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia's imports reached USD 18.82 billion in September 2024, marking an 8.91% month-to-month (MtM) decrease from the previous month's figure of USD 20.67 billion. BCA's Chief Economist David Sumual attributes this decline to an annual cycle, noting that imports in September 2021, 2022, and 2023 also saw decreases. Despite this, David predicts a tendency for imports to increase towards the end of the year, aligned with the Christmas and New Year season. “Imports should seasonally strengthen towards the end of the year, especially as the rupiah remains relatively strong,” David told Kontan on Tuesday, October 15.

David further mentioned that the decline in import performance remains within a safe range as long as it does not continue for more than three consecutive months. In September 2024, the import performance comprised oil and gas (migas) imports amounting to USD 2.53 billion, a 4.53% MtM decrease from USD 2.65 billion, and non-oil and gas imports reaching USD 16.30 billion, a 9.55% MtM drop from the previous month's USD 16.02 billion. Additionally, imports by usage category also saw a monthly decrease: consumer goods imports fell by 6.37% MtM to USD 1.85 billion, raw materials and auxiliary goods imports dropped by 9.69% to USD 13.44 billion, and capital goods imports declined by 7.15% to USD 3.53 billion.

Source: https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/impor-indonesia-diproyeksi-kembali-naik-di-akhir-tahun-2024