Indonesia's trade balance for September 2024 is expected to show a significant surplus, predicted to be between USD 2.5 billion and USD 2.6 billion, according to Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios). This surplus is largely driven by a notable decrease in non-oil and gas imports, especially in raw materials, indicating that demand for increased production in the manufacturing sector remains suboptimal. Bhima also noted that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) below 50 reflects a slowdown in raw material purchases, which could impact economic growth and employment in the manufacturing sector.
Despite this surplus, Bhima cautions that the underlying economic health should be closely monitored, as the reduction in raw material imports might harm domestic industries. He emphasized the need for government measures to ensure that the trade surplus reflects a healthy economy rather than a drop in raw material imports. Additionally, the increasing imports of consumer goods, driven by China's overproduction and competitive pricing, could further challenge local industries and SMEs. Therefore, stricter monitoring of both legal and illegal imports is essential to protect domestic businesses.
