Indonesia's trade balance is expected to record a significant surplus in August 2024 compared to the previous month. BCA Chief Economist, David Sumual, estimates that the trade balance surplus in August 2024 will reach USD 2.38 billion, up from USD 472 million in July 2024. The surplus is primarily driven by stronger export performance relative to imports. However, David predicts that both exports and imports will experience a slowdown. He estimates Indonesia's exports will decline by 3.69% year-on-year (yoy), and on a monthly basis, they are expected to drop by 4.61% month-on-month (mom).
At the same time, imports are predicted to fall by 0.425% yoy and 13.51% mom. David attributed the slowdown in both exports and imports to declining commodity prices, particularly in oil, which had a more pronounced effect on imports. Meanwhile, export performance remains relatively moderate, supported by coal and crude palm oil (CPO) exports, which, despite a slowdown, have not been significantly impacted. It concludes that Indonesia's trade balance remains stable despite challenges in the global commodity market.

Source: https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/neraca-perdagangan-agustus-2024-diproyeksi-catat-surplus-hingga-us-238-miliar