Indonesia's trade surplus is projected to experience a slight increase in March 2024 compared to the previous month. Myrdal Gunarto, a staff member in the Economic, Industrial, and Global Markets Division at Bank Maybank Indonesia, anticipates this rise in the trade surplus due to improved export performance. Despite remaining below the USD 1 billion mark, the trade surplus is expected to reach around USD 0.937 billion in March 2024, a slight uptick from February's USD 0.87 billion.

The surge in export performance, driven by increased exports of commodities such as coal, palm oil, and mineral products like gold, is forecasted to result in an 11.46% annual increase in export performance in March. Meanwhile, import performance is predicted to decline by 3.85% annually in March due to subdued consumer demand during Ramadan. Additionally, both export and import values in April are expected to decrease further due to the Eid holiday, resulting in a shorter period for international trade transactions. Despite the surplus remaining below USD 1 billion, its impact on domestic dollar supply could make the Indonesian rupiah vulnerable to pressure against the US dollar if there's a capital outflow exceeding USD 1 billion due to global sentiment pressures.

Source: https://insight.kontan.co.id/news/cpo-dan-batubara-topang-surplus-neraca-dagang