Projections from various international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, ADB, OECD, and Fitch Ratings suggest that the Indonesian economy is poised to maintain positive growth in 2024, hovering around 5%. David Sumual, Chief Economist of Bank Central Asia (BCA), forecasts Indonesia's economic growth to reach approximately 5%-5.2% this year. He anticipates that this growth will be supported by investments in downstream mineral and agricultural sectors. "Additionally, consumption sectors including food and beverages are expected to drive growth," David stated to Kontan.co.id on Tuesday, April 2. David also noted that the effects of the single-round elections have prompted the majority of corporations to increase capital expenditure budgets in the second quarter of 2024. However, corporate performance may still be constrained by weak global demand. "Furthermore, we are awaiting policies and programs from the next government," he added.
In a separate statement, Helmi Arman, Chief Economist of Citibank NA Indonesia (Citi Indonesia), highlighted that the manufacturing sector, especially basic metals, will be a key driver of economic growth this year. He emphasized that the value-added contribution from this sector has been increasing annually. "In recent years, Indonesia has shifted from exporting nickel in the form of stainless steel and nickel pig iron to higher nickel content products such as nickel sulfate and nickel matte," explained Helmi. In addition to manufacturing, he identified energy-intensive sectors like pulp and paper as another pillar of Indonesia's economy. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, several paper industries in Europe have closed down, resulting in increased imports from countries including Indonesia to meet the demand for these products.
