The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) predicts that in the third quarter of 2022, economic growth in Indonesia will reach 5.5%. This figure is based on the condition of Indonesia which is considered to have succeeded in maintaining the momentum of economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic. “In the third quarter, economic growth will still grow very strongly above 5.5 percent. This is an estimate from the Ministry of Finance,” said Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani in a virtual press conference on the State Budget KiTA, Sunday (10/23/2022). The Minister of Finance even said that Indonesia’s economic indicators of PMI in the short term are still healthy and strong. This is similar to several indicators detected, including the mobility indicator, retail sales index, and expenditure index, all of which are still in a positive and expansionary situation to strengthen the supply side. “This means that for 13 consecutive months, Indonesia’s PMI is still in a state of expansion,” she said. On the other hand, Sri Mulyani explained, from the manufacturing side, production processing capacity has also increased. "This all illustrates that this third quarter our gross domestic product (GDP) may still be strong even though yesterday we raised fuel prices," she added.
Sri Mulyani said that amid the weakening global economy, Indonesia’s condition is relatively stable. Moreover, the IMF projects that Indonesia's economic growth in 2022 will be at 5.3%. Next year, the growth is also expected at level of 5.0%. According to her, this is due to the performance of Indonesia’s external sector which is still quite good. Referring to the trade balance, Indonesia experienced a surplus of USD 4.9 trillion in September 2022. The surplus was the 29th consecutive month. The accumulated trade surplus during 2022 reached USD 39.9 trillion. Sri Mulyani assessed that the trade surplus had provided support for Indonesia against global economic shocks. Indonesia’s exports are still growing by 20.28% although the trend has begun to decline in several months. She explained that the decline in exports was caused by the condition of Indonesia’s leading commodities globally, such as crude palm oil (CPO). Not only a matter of quantity, the price of CPO even globally is experiencing a decline. Even though Indonesia’s economic situation looks strong and healthy, Sri Mulyani reminded us to always be vigilant in facing the challenges of the global economy in 2023. “So, we also have to be careful, even though we also have a very healthy and strong momentum for our economic recovery,” she concluded.
