Economist Irman Faiz estimates that Indonesia's trade balance in August 2022 will post a surplus of US$3.7 billion. "This is because exports are still growing at around 20.3% on an annual basis, while imports are growing at 32.1% on an annual basis," he told Bisnis, Wednesday (14/9/2022). Faiz said that the increase in exports, which were lower than imports, triggered a decrease in the trade balance surplus in August 2022, from the previous month which reached USD 4.2 billion. "We see that the manufacturing PMI in August was expansive, higher than July 2022. This indicates that manufacturing imports have the potential to be higher," he explained.
On the export side, Faiz said that coal prices tended to be stable, while CPO corrected slightly. This also led to a slowdown in export performance in August 2022. On a different occasion, Bank Permata's Chief Economist also estimated a trade balance surplus in August 2022 of USD 3.7 billion. The export value in the period is estimated to reach USD24.9 billion, an increase of 16.09% YoY, slowing compared to the previous month which grew 32% YoY. "The slowdown in exports is influenced by the potential decline in export volume as indicated by a decline in manufacturing activity [Manufacturing PMI] from Indonesia's main trading partners such as the United States, Europe, China and Japan," he said. In addition, Josua estimates the value of imports in August 2022 to reach USD 21.2 billion, an increase of 26.95% on an annual basis.
