Currently, the development of the world economy is experiencing a shift in risk, from the COVID-19 pandemic turning to global economic pressures causing a sharp increase in inflation as a result of supply disruption due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, while post-pandemic demand increases. To overcome this risk, developed countries tightened liquidity and raised interest rates which caused global financial market volatility, capital outflows from developing countries and weakening of the exchange rate as well as a spike in the cost of funds. This will cause many countries to have very high debt ratios (60-100 percent of GDP), the cost of debt and revolving risk to rise sharply, resulting in potential defaults in more than 60 countries. Head of the Regional Office of the Directorate General of Treasury of South Kalimantan (Kalsel) Sulaimansyah during the South Kalimantan Regional Assets and Liabilities Committee (ALCo) Publication Press Conference in August 2022 said that many countries would experience an economic slowdown accompanied by high inflation, making it very dangerous and complicated. economic policy (stagflation). “The country has shown positive economic performance, where economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 can reach 5.4%, and even national GDP has grown beyond market expectations, which is better than before the pandemic. Inflation until July 2022 is still under control, reaching 4.9%, far below European countries and the USA," said Sulaimansyah, Banjarmasin, Tuesday (23/8/2022).
Sulaimansyah explained, various indicators also continued to show strengthening, such as increasing community mobilization, the retail sales index continued to increase, Indonesia's PMI increased again in July to 51.3%, electricity consumption growth and manufacturing and mining production capacity also continued to improve. The economy of South Kalimantan in the second quarter of 2022 recorded an excellent growth of 5.81% above the national economic growth. South Kalimantan's economic growth received the largest contribution from the mining, transportation and trade sectors. From the expenditure side, everything increased except for the consumption of the South Kalimantan Provincial Government, due to the shift in payment of the 13th salary in July and the decrease in COVID-19 spending which was increasingly controlled. “Inflation in South Kalimantan is also under control, reaching 4.53% (YTD). Other economic indicators in South Kalimantan also show a better improvement," said Sulaimansyah. To overcome the impact of global economic risks, according to Sulaimansyah, the government will adjust the posture of the State Budget with Presidential Regulation (Perpres) Number 98 of 2022 concerning amendments to Presidential Regulation Number 104 of 2021 concerning Details of the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) 2022. "In the Presidential Regulation, the target for state revenues is to increase by IDR 420 trillion, while spending increases by IDR 392.20 trillion to IDR 3,106.40 trillion," added Sulaimansyah. In this expenditure, the increase was in energy subsidy spending, compensation for fuel and electricity as well as additional social welfare. The Presidential Regulation also estimates a deficit of 4.5% of GDP, which means a decrease compared to the original state budget. Government spending is focused on the role of the state budget as a shock absorber, namely controlling inflation, maintaining people's purchasing power and maintaining the momentum of economic recovery.
